Fields Institute

Global experts in quantum technologies, research gather at ��TV to discuss 'growing and maturing field'

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:39:24 +0000

Global experts in quantum technologies, research gather at ��TV to discuss 'growing and maturing field'

Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 09/29/2022 - 10:39

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Daniela Angulo Murcillo, a graduate student in the quantum optics group in ��TV's department of physics, poses for a photo during a poster session at the Centre for Quantum Information & Quantum Control conference (photo by Diana Tyszko)

Chris Sasaki

Topic

Our Community

Faculty of Arts & Science

Fields Institute

Graduate Students

Physics

Quantum Computing

Research & Innovation

More than 100 leading experts, post-doctoral researchers and students from around the world recently descended upon the University of Toronto to share their quantum research.

The ninth biennial Centre for Quantum Information & Quantum Control (CQIQC) conference, a week-long gathering that wrapped up earlier this month, was held at the Fields Institute on the St. George campus and was organized by the Faculty of Arts & Science’s CQIQC research nexus.

“The conference has always been a wonderful opportunity to bring together leaders and young researchers from all sorts of different sub-areas in the field for a week in Toronto,” says University Professor Aephraim Steinberg of ��TV’s department of physics and lead organizer of the conference.

“It's very exciting for us because we get to talk to people in our own specialty or in different specialties. It’s a chance to get a broad view of what's exciting and what's going on in the field.”

CQIQC – pronounced “see-quick” – is the interdisciplinary umbrella organization for quantum research at ��TV. It promotes research collaborations in theoretical and experimental activities; educates and trains students; runs a variety of programs such as post-doctoral fellowships, summer internships for undergrads, visiting professorships and awards; and runs a successful seminar series.

More than a hundred leading experts, post-doctoral researchers and students from around the world met at the ninth biennial Centre for Quantum Information & Quantum Control (CQIQC) conference (photo by Diana Tyszko)

“Our members are from science and engineering departments and are working on both fundamental and applied aspects of quantum science and technology,” says Dvira Segal, the centre’s interim director and a professor in the department of chemistry.

“The centre’s ambition is to advance quantum research and education in Canada and establish ��TV as a world-class research institute in the quantum field. We foster and facilitate interactions and collaborations between various research groups within the university and internationally, as well as promote partnerships with industry.”

The interdisciplinary conference featured five days of invited and contributed talks exploring all topics quantum – which are available on the conference website.

Experts from Stanford University, MIT, Harvard University, Duke University and other institutions, as well as scientists and entrepreneurs from startup companies, shared advances they’ve made in quantum computing and quantum supremacy – a term used to describe when a quantum computer solves a problem that can’t be solved by a classical computer in a reasonable amount of time.

Some talked about the ramifications of quantum advances on the cryptography that protects our digital and network transactions. Some discussed the practical challenges in building quantum computers and the quantum algorithms they run. Others explored more fundamental topics in quantum physics, including the nature of quantum phenomena and what makes them quantum.

Alejandro Perdomo-Ortiz, research director, Quantum AI, at Zapata Computing gives a presentation at the conference (photo by Diana Tyszko)

The conference provided students from around the world with an opportunity to share their research with attendees in discussions and poster sessions, and a chance to network with leading researchers in the field.

Daniela Angulo Murcillo, a graduate student in the quantum optics group in ��TV’s department of physics, presented a poster, “Measuring the Atomic Excitation Time due to Narrowband Resonant Photons that are Transmitted,” that described work she and her collaborators are conducting under the supervision of Steinberg.

“I truly enjoyed this conference because of the variety of subjects involved – from foundational topics like contextuality to technological applications like quantum computing,” says Murcillo.

“I was inspired to explore new subjects by passionate scientists telling us about their work; reading about boson sampling is my new hobby! I was also able to discuss my work with other students and professors, and their questions tested me to find different strategies to explain my research.”

Frank Corapi, a graduate student in the quantum optics group in the department of physics, participated in the conference poster session (photo by Diana Tyszko)

Frank Corapi is another graduate student in the quantum optics group. He presented a poster, “Towards Quantum Simulation with p-Wave Interacting Fermions,” describing research he and collaborators conducted under the supervision of Joseph Thywissen, a professor in the department of physics.

“I greatly enjoyed my time at the conference,” says Corapi. “Discussing my research with some of the other attendees provided me with new perspectives on concepts I'd been thinking about for a long time. The various talks and posters were also quite interesting, and the entire experience left me with many ideas to bring back to the lab.”

For Steinberg and others at CQIQC, the conference continues to be one of the ways the centre is fulfilling its mission.

“CQIQC has been around for more than 20 years, and we’ve been running this conference for almost the entire time,” says Steinberg.

“We're undergoing continued growth and are always bringing in more students and faculty who are pushing the boundaries of this area – and we’re proud the conference has become one of the international mainstays of the quantum information meeting circuit.”

Anna Dyring, CQIQC’s quantum strategic initiative lead and one of the conference organizers, says the interest from students and young people, including undergraduate students, was “striking,” as was the large presence of industry representatives and startups.

“These outcomes are hopefully a sign of a growing and maturing field, and feels very encouraging for the future.”

Nine ��TV researchers receive federal grants for COVID-19 projects

rahul.kalvapalle — Tue, 31 Mar 2020 22:58:28 +0000

Nine ��TV researchers receive federal grants for COVID-19 projects

rahul.kalvapalle Tue, 03/31/2020 - 18:58

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Vijaya Kumar Murty, a professor in ��TV's department of mathematics, is setting up a COVID-19 task force to predict outbreak trajectories, measure public health interventions and provide real-time advice to policy-makers (photo by Johnny Guatto)

Rahul Kalvapalle

Topic

Our Community

Coronavirus

Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation

Biochemistry

Dalla Lana School of Public Health

Faculty of Arts & Science

Research & Innovation

Sunnybrook Hospital

University Health Network

When it comes to assessing the risk of transmission of an infectious disease like COVID-19 and evaluating the effectiveness of measures like physical distancing, mathematics and mathematical modelling are crucial.

“How does the virus spread? How quickly does it multiply? What’s the impact of interventions like social distancing? Mathematical modelling looks at these kinds of questions,” says Vijaya Kumar Murty, a professor in the department of mathematics in the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Arts & Science.

To address such questions, mathematicians like Murty take into account numerous variables involved in the spread of a disease, including the age, occupation or pre-existing health conditions of an individual.

“So what you do is try to build a mathematical quantitative model – taking these factors into account – of what’s going to happen in terms of the propagation dynamics,” says Murty, who is also the director of the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences at ��TV.

Murty is the recipient of a $666,667 grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) that will go towards setting up the COVID-19 Mathematical Modelling Rapid Response Task Force, a network of experts who will work to predict outbreak trajectories for the disease, measure public health interventions and provide real-time advice to policy-makers.

It’s one of nine COVID-19 research projects at ��TV to receive support from a recent $25.8-million funding package announced by the Government of Canada, building on an earlier investment of $27 million on March 6 – nearly $6 million of which went to researchers who are based at ��TV or one of its affiliated hospitals.

Both rounds of funding are part of the federal government’s larger $275-million investment in research on COVID-19 counter-measures.

“From developing low-cost diagnostic tools to modelling disease transmission and exploring potential drug interventions, researchers at the University of Toronto are attacking the problems posed by COVID-19 from numerous angles,” says Vivek Goel, ��TV’s vice-president, research and innovation, and strategic initiatives.

“This latest round of funding from the federal government will help our experts across several disciplines to accelerate research projects that could have a crucial impact in the global fight against this potentially deadly illness.”

(See below for the full list of researchers who received support from CIHR in the latest COVID-19 funding round).

Murty’s mathematical modelling task force was inspired by a similar network set up by Mitacs – a national non-profit that designs and delivers research and training programs in partnership with universities, governments and companies – during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). It will comprise 14 academics from across the country as well as other partners, including the Public Health Agency of Canada and research institutes in China.

In addition to addressing the pressing issue of the coronavirus epidemic, Murty says mathematical modelling can be applied to the analysis of other infectious diseases as well as the study of social pathogens like opioid abuse.

“It explores the propagation of a pathogen in society or, in general, propagation in networks,” he says. “How something moves from node to node – or person to person – and what interventions will produce what effect on that transmission.”

“This work is of course time-sensitive and critically important right now because of the health situation we find ourselves in. But thinking beyond that, I’m envisaging that this task force will grow so that we can continue to analyze and model public health and disease from a mathematics point of view.”

Darrell Tan, a clinician-scientist at St. Michael’s Hospital and an associate professor in ��TV’s Faculty of Medicine and the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, will look at whether the HIV drug Kaletra could be useful against COVID-19 (photo courtesy of Darell Tan)

While Murty and his collaborators crunch the numbers, Darrell Tan is preparing to run clinical trials to explore whether a popular anti-HIV drug could help prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Tan is an associate professor at the Faculty of Medicine and the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and is a clinician-scientist in the infectious diseases division of St. Michael’s Hospital. He secured a $1-million CIHR grant for the trials, which will look at whether Kaletra – a drug that has been used in HIV treatment as well as for uninfected people with high risk of exposure – could be useful against COVID-19.

“In general, whenever we’re trying to actively find new therapies for any medical condition, one of the most efficient ways of doing that is to find existing available drugs that could potentially be re-purposed,” says Tan.

“Because obviously it saves all the steps in drug development and safety assessments if we already have a drug available that we understand the characteristics of very well.”

Tan says that in-vitro studies and animal experiments have suggested Kaletra may have an effect on COVID-19 and other types of coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), but that there’s a dearth of quality evidence from human studies.

His trial will deploy what’s known as a “ring design,” where “rings” of people who came into close contact with COVID-19 patients will be identified.

“Once we identify a case, one could draw a ring of close contacts surrounding that ‘index case,’ and, of course, those people would be the individuals who would be at greatest risk and therefore the ones we would most immediately want to intervene on in order to prevent transmission from happening,” says Tan.

Individuals selected for the study will be randomly assigned to a 14-day course of either Kaletra or a placebo and will be tested periodically to see if they develop COVID-19.

“If you have an intervention that does turn out to work, you can imagine effectively drawing a ring around a person and intervening on that ring of exposed contacts to create a buffer between the infection we already know about and the rest of the population,” said Tan.

The trials could begin as early as the first week of April, in what Tan said is a testament to the seriousness and speed of Canada’s regulatory authorities in supporting COVID-19 research projects.

“The process of having a clinical trial approved by Health Canada can usually take up to 30 days,” says Tan. “In this case, Health Canada received our application, reviewed it and issued approval within less than 24 hours over a weekend, which is quite remarkable.”

In a statement, federal Minister of Health Patty Hajdu emphasized the importance of research in tackling COVID-19 in Canada and around the world.

“The outbreak of COVID-19 evolves quickly, and protecting the health of Canadians is our priority. The additional teams of researchers receiving funding today will help Canada quickly generate the evidence we need to contribute to the global understanding of the COVID-19 illness,” Hajdu said.

“Their essential work will contribute to the development of effective vaccines, diagnostics, treatments, and public health responses.”

Here is the full list of ��TV researchers who received CIHR funding for their COVID-19-related projects:

Roy Gillis of the department of applied psychology and human development at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education: Responding to the stigma, fear, discrimination and misinformation related to the COVID-19 disease outbreak – a novel analyses and intervention for a novel coronavirus
Shaf Keshavjee of the department of surgery in the Faculty of Medicine and the University Health Network: Reducing the health-care resource burden from COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) –Rapid diagnostics to risk-stratify for severity of illness
Robert Maunder of the department of psychiatry in the Faculty of Medicine and Sinai Health System: Peer champion support for hospital health-care workers during and after a novel coronavirus outbreak: It's a marathon, not a sprint
Vijaya Kumar Murty of the department of mathematics in the Faculty of Arts & Science and the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences: Agent-based and multi-scale mathematical modelling of COVID-19 for assessments of sustained transmission risk and effectiveness of countermeasures
James Rini of the departments of biochemistry and molecular genetics in the Faculty of Medicine: Neutralizing antibodies as SARS-CoV-2 therapeutics
Simron Singh of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and the department of medicine in the Faculty of Medicine and Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre: Assessment of cancer patient and caregiver perspective on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the impact on delivery of cancer care at an institution with a confirmed case of COVID-19
Darrell Tan of the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and department of medicine in the Faculty of Medicine and St. Michael’s Hospital: COVID-19 ring-based prevention trial for undermining spread (CORPUS)
Xiaolin Wei of the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health: Developing integrated guidelines for health-care workers in hospital and primary health-care facilities in response to Covid-19 pandemic in low- and mddle-Income countries (LMICs)
Xiao-Yan Wen of the department of physiology in the Faculty of Medicine and St. Michael’s Hospital: Therapeutic development for COVID-19 coronavirus-induced sepsis and ARDS targeting vascular leakage

��TV's Medicine by Design invests $1.2 million to advance regenerative medicine research and translation

Christopher.Sorensen — Tue, 14 May 2019 21:05:07 +0000

��TV's Medicine by Design invests $1.2 million to advance regenerative medicine research and translation

Christopher.Sorensen Tue, 05/14/2019 - 17:05

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Leo Chou, an assistant professor at ��TV’s Institute of Biomaterials & Biomedical Engineering and a Medicine by Design investigator, is leading one of four projects selected for the 2019 New Ideas Awards (Photo by Bill Dai)

Ann Perry

Topic

Our Community

Pediatrics

Donnelly Centre for Cellular & Biomolecular Research

Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute

Chemical Engineering

Electrical & Computer Engineering

Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering

Fields Institute

Hospital for Sick Children

Immunology

Institute of Biomaterials and Biomedical Engineering

Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology

Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy

Mechanical & Industrial Engineering

Regenerative Medicine

Research & Innovation

Sunnybrook Hospital

surgery

��TV Scarborough

University Health Network

UTIAS

What can a swarm of drones tell us about how our bodies make blood? Can folding strands of DNA into origami-like structures help researchers engineer more targeted treatments for lupus and multiple sclerosis? What new insights can mathematical and computational modelling offer into how tissues and organs form?

These are just a few of the questions that nine research teams across the University of Toronto and its affiliated hospitals are investigating thanks to $1.2 million in 2019 New Ideas and Seed Fund awards from Medicine by Design. The awards support basic and translational research aimed at advancing new concepts that are expected to be of critical importance to regenerative medicine in the coming decades, using tools such as synthetic biology and mathematical modelling.

“With these awards, we are pushing the frontiers of regenerative medicine by encouraging creativity, risk-taking and excellence at the convergence of science, engineering and medicine,” said University Professor Michael Sefton, who is executive director of Medicine by Design and a faculty member at the Institute of Biomaterials & Biomedical Engineering (IBBME) and the department of chemical engineering and applied chemistry.

“These projects exemplify the best of Medicine by Design by bringing people together across disciplines and institutions to tackle novel questions and test new approaches.”

Medicine by Design selected the nine funded projects from among 22 short-listed proposals, which were evaluated and ranked through an external peer review process. Sixty research teams at ��TV and its affiliated hospitals submitted expressions of intent last fall in response to an open call.

Medicine by Design is a regenerative medicine research initiative at ��TV with a mandate to accelerate transformational discoveries and translate them into new therapies for common diseases. It is made possible thanks in part to a $114-million grant from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund – the single-largest research award in ��TV’s history.

New Ideas Awards

Leo Chou leads one of four projects selected for 2019 New Ideas Awards, which provide $100,000 per year for two years. Chou, an assistant professor at IBBME and a new Medicine by Design investigator, is collaborating with Bebhinn Treanor, an associate professor in the department of biological sciences at the ��TV Scarborough, to study how DNA nanotechnology could be used to ramp up or dampen immune responses, offering new ways to treat disease.

The project elegantly fuses their diverse expertise. Chou uses a process known as DNA origami to pinch and “staple” a long strand of DNA at precise points to create a variety of nanoscale shapes that can arrange biomolecules into precise two- and three-dimensional patterns. Treanor, an immunologist, studies how antigens – fragments of viruses or bacteria with unique markers – trigger immune cells in our bodies called B cells to produce specific antibodies to bind to and inactivate the associated virus or bacteria. Both are intrigued by the fact that, in nature, antigens arranged in periodic spacing provoke a much more potent immune response than individual antigens.

Together, they plan to use Chou’s DNA nanostructures as building blocks to study how the layout, structure, and nature of an array of antigens can affect the dynamics and strength of B cell activation.

The immediate goal is to figure out the basic design principles. “Like all good, fundamental studies, it might open up a lot of doors,” said Chou, who earned his PhD at IBBME in 2014 and returned to ��TV in January as a faculty member after a post-doctoral fellowship at the Wyss Institute at Harvard University and the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston.

“It might lead us to interesting biology that we just don’t understand, or haven’t discovered, yet.”

Ultimately, Chou and Treanor hope to create synthetically designed particles that can act as precision vaccines to heighten or dampen immune responses. This approach could lead to more targeted therapies for autoimmune diseases, such as lupus, arthritis and multiple sclerosis, in which the normal immune process goes haywire and mounts an attack on a person’s own cells. Chou also thinks their technology platform could be applied to better control the activation of other cell types, which could help enable cell-based therapies by making the cell-manufacturing process more efficient.

Other 2019 New Ideas projects include:

Dr. Robert Hamilton, a cardiologist and senior associate scientist at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) and a professor in the department of paediatrics at ��TV, is leading a project that aims to create precision immunotherapies for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. This heritable, autoimmune condition causes the myocardium, or heart muscle wall, to break down over time and can lead to sudden death. Sachdev Sidhu, a professor at ��TV’s Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research, is the co-investigator, and SickKids clinicians Dr. Donna Wall and Dr. Joerg Krueger are also part of the project team.
Dr. Sevan Hopyan, an orthopaedic surgeon and senior scientist at SickKids and an associate professor in the departments of molecular genetics and surgery at ��TV, is making a computational tool to gain new insights into the physical processes that influence how embryonic tissues are organized and shaped. Known as morphogenesis, this process at the earliest stages of life remains poorly understood but could hold important clues for researchers developing regenerative medicine therapies. The co-investigator on this project is Yu Sun, a professor in the department of mechanical and industrial engineering at ��TV, while Huaxiong Huang, the deputy director of the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences, is collaborating.
Krishna Mahadevan, a professor in the department of chemical engineering and applied chemistry, is leading a team that aims to create new therapies for inflammatory bowel disease such as Crohn’s disease by engineering gut bacteria that can sense inflammation, and then secrete molecules that dampen it and promote regeneration of the intestinal lining. Combining synthetic biology and stem cell biology, the project also draws on the expertise of co-investigators Keith Pardee, an assistant professor in the Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy and a Medicine by Design investigator, and Tae-Hee Kim, a scientist at SickKids and an assistant professor in ��TV’s department of molecular genetics.

Seed Fund Awards

To increase the number of cutting-edge ideas it invests in, Medicine by Design created a new award this year called the Seed Fund Award, which provides $75,000 for one year to each of five projects.

Angela Schoellig (left) leads one of these projects, which is forging innovative ties between biomedical engineering and robotics. An assistant professor at ��TV’s Institute for Aerospace Studies, she works at the interface of robotics, controls and machine learning, with research interests in self-driving vehicles and autonomous aerial vehicles, or drones.

Schoellig is using her award funding to study complex collective behaviour in living and non-living systems. Known as emergence, the phenomenon refers to the dynamic evolution of a system to develop complexity that cannot be easily predicted from the properties of its individual parts. In nature, a common example of emergence is murmuration, which occurs when hundreds of birds congregate and fly in organized, swooping patterns.

Schoellig and co-investigator Peter Zandstra, a University Professor at IBBME, are combining their respective expertise in robotic drones and blood-forming systems to gain new insights into emergence that could lead to advances in both fields. They hope that identifying common elements in these diverse systems will help them understand how a collection of individual entities in a disordered state develops complex, co-ordinated activities, ultimately advancing the capacity to predict and even control desirable emergent behaviour. Such findings could have many applications, including improving the reconstitution of healthy blood systems in patients who have undergone stem cell transplants. The research could also enhance the ability of robots to perform collaborative tasks in dynamic environments, such as airspace defence, search and rescue, and package delivery. Zandstra is also director of the School of Biomedical Engineering and the Michael Smith Laboratories at the University of British Columbia.

The other four successful Seed Fund Award projects range from brain organoids to new strategies to treat hearing loss.

Dr. Peter Carlen, a neurologist and senior scientist at the Krembil Research Institute at University Health Network (UHN) and a professor in ��TV’s departments of medicine and physiology, as well as IBBME, is leading a project aimed at creating personalized treatments for the one-third of epilepsy patients whose disease does not respond to drugs. He plans to do this by generating cerebral organoids – brain-like mini-organs grown in a dish – from induced pluripotent stem cells derived from patients with drug-resistant epilepsy. His team will then use these organoids to study why the patients have not responded to medication, and to determine optimal pharmacotherapy options. Co-investigators on the project are Cathy Barr, a senior scientist at Krembil and SickKids and a professor in ��TV’s department of psychiatry, and Roman Genov, a professor in ��TV’s department of electrical and computer engineering.
Sarah Crome, a scientist at UHN, an assistant professor at ��TV’s department of immunology and a Medicine by Design investigator, heads a project investigating whether immune cells known as innate lymphoid cells that reside in tissues can be harnessed to promote regeneration, prevent rejection and ultimately improve the success of cell-based immune therapies.
Alain Dabdoub, a senior scientist at Sunnybrook Research Institute and an associate professor in the departments of otolaryngology and laboratory medicine and pathobiology at ��TV, leads a project aimed at regenerating the auditory neurons that transmit sound from the inner ear to the brain as a strategy to reverse hearing loss. Building on work he has already performed in mice in vitro, Dabdoub will investigate how to convert glial cells in a mouse model of neuropathy as well as human glial cells in vitro into auditory neurons.
Miguel Ramalho-Santos, a senior investigator at the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute at Sinai Health System, a professor at ��TV’s department of molecular genetics and a Medicine by Design investigator, is using his Seed Fund Award to study whether the way genes are packed inside the nucleus of human pluripotent stem cells affects their ability to generate cerebral organoids, a tool that holds potential to model neurological diseases and test medications outside the body.

With these new awards, Medicine by Design funds more than 130 investigators across ��TV and its affiliated hospitals.

Research in Mathematical Science, Fields Institute for

smithna5 — Mon, 02 May 2016 18:05:17 +0000

Research in Mathematical Science, Fields Institute for smithna5 Mon, 05/02/2016 - 14:05

URL

http://www.fields.utoronto.ca

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 20:33:54 +0000

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj Wed, 04/27/2016 - 16:33

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(photo by mrpbps via flickr)

Peter Herriman

Author legacy

Peter Herriman

Topic

Subheadline

Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences hosts alumnus Howard Barker

Whether you turn to the Farmer’s Almanac, a 24-hour weather station or an app on your phone, weather predictions are a constant source of fascination for Canadians.

For a greater understanding of the math behind the science, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences at the University of Toronto is hosting a talk by alumnus Howard Barker on April 28.

A research scientist in the Improving Climate and Weather Prediction Models section at Environment Canada, Barker’s lecture is entitled “Prediction of Weather and Climate: From Sub-millimetre Cloud Particles to Global Warming”.

Fields writer Peter Herriman spoke with Barker about his research and upcoming lecture.

(This interview has been condensed for length.)

How important is accurate numerical weather prediction?
If a numerical model predicts that a deluge is likely to hit downtown Toronto within the next three hours, well, little can be done about it. But with climatic change, as predicted by climate models, comes weather pattern change.

Conventional climate models cannot make detailed weather forecasts for specific regions such as, for example, the GTA. If, however, climate predictions can be used to confidently drive an Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for several years at high resolution for Southern Ontario, we would presumably get an idea of rates of occurrences of extreme weather events, ranging from winter storms to thunderstorms to droughts, and thus when and where our infrastructures need to be upgraded or added.

How accurate were the forecasts for the weather we experienced in the winter of 2015-2016? How accurate were the “global” temperatures for winter and summer of the past year?
The weather was pretty much as expected across much of Canada. We had advance notice of the large El Nino and knew what to expect. March 2016 was the 11th consecutive month with a record high global monthly-mean surface air temperature. This in itself is a record for persistence, and is pretty much in-line with what global climate models have been predicting for the past couple of decades.

Regarding the slightly diminished rise in global surface temperatures over the past decade or so, relative to the previous decade, it appears to have been due to energy going into the deep oceans. Moreover, it seems as though mean temperature is on the rise again at a rate resembling those of the 1990s.

What’s changed in recent years for weather and climate prediction?
Beginning in about 2000, data from various platforms, most importantly satellites, have been assimilated routinely into NWP models. This operation updates the initial conditions of the model and has resulted in much improved forecasts across Canada and around the world. More, and novel, data will only aid the effort.

Likewise, representations of physical processes, such as cloud physics, convection, and turbulence, have improved over the same period and they help improve weather prediction but more so climate prediction.

The ultimate goal is to develop unbiased representations of physical processes, for persistent biases can be anathema to the overall integrity of long climate simulations.

Since the magnitude of the simulated system is truly global, it is imperative that our numerical models be assessed from a global perspective. The most cost-effective way to do this is with satellites; both research and operational satellites. There are now several geostationary satellites as well as technically advanced radars and lasers (i.e., active sensors) on polar-orbiting satellites that provide information pertaining to atmospheric profiles; as opposed to two-dimensional imagery which is what comes from conventional passive sensors.

The other important point is computers and networks that transfer information. Significant portions of many of the world’s largest and faster computers are devoted to weather and climate operations and research.

Environment and Climate Change Canada is preparing to upgrade its supercomputer, and this always benefits forecasts via improved model resolution. Moreover, the amount of data handled in both NWP data assimilation systems and century-long climate simulations is staggering large, and it is not clear if affordable technologies can keep pace with scientific and societal demands.

Is there a consensus in the world concerning the prediction of weather and climate?
Uncertainties regarding the representations of clouds and their radiative properties have been flagged, for over 20 years, as the greatest source of uncertainty facing predictions of climatic change, and the weather that will accompany it.

Also, uncertainties pertaining to both greenhouse gas and particulate emission scenarios over the next century remain high.

This means that even if our models were perfect facsimiles of Earth, their practical value would be attenuated by the fact that we cannot accurately predict how to force them with radiative perturbations that stem from human activities.

But better prediction of severe weather, like hurricanes and tornadoes, has reduced losses of lives. Advanced warnings of snow events and episodes of poor air quality can save lives as well as reduce healthcare costs.

With climate models, their not-too-uplifting predictions, coupled with myriad observations from around the globe, have finally caught the attention, and hopes, of many Canadians; witness the politicians they have elected recently.

What else will will your lecture cover?
What I will attempt to convey is that both NWP and climate prediction require, and use, some of the most advanced technologies that humanity has to offer.

In order for these sciences to realize goals, which are set ever-higher by both their own communities and society at large, continued access to advancing technologies and highly educated people are essential.

See the lecture streamed live

Peter Herriman is a writer with The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences.

(See the original of the photo used above at Flickr)

Fields Institute

Global experts in quantum technologies, research gather at ����TV to discuss 'growing and maturing field'

Nine ����TV researchers receive federal grants for COVID-19 projects

����TV's Medicine by Design invests $1.2 million to advance regenerative medicine research and translation

New Ideas Awards

Seed Fund Awards

Research in Mathematical Science, Fields Institute for

Tags

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

See the lecture streamed live

Global experts in quantum technologies, research gather at ��TV to discuss 'growing and maturing field'

Nine ��TV researchers receive federal grants for COVID-19 projects

��TV's Medicine by Design invests $1.2 million to advance regenerative medicine research and translation